Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.0)
(7)
36,542
U.S. stocks turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Friday,
Nifty
(0.0)
(4)
11,019
despite the choppy trading, the Nasdaq hit a new record high and the S&P 500
Mid Cap
(0.8)
(120)
15,431
reached its best closing level in five months. The Dow Jones inched up by 0.4% to
Small Cap
(1.4)
(224)
16,196
25,019 and the Nasdaq was flat at 7,825.
Bankex
(0.6)
(171)
29,788
U.K. stocks were trading higher on the last trading day as China export data topped
forecasts and the pound drifted lower against its major opponents after a warning
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
from U.S. President Donald Trump that Prime Minister Theresa May's current 'soft-
Brexit' proposal with the EU would probably "kill" any future trade deals with the
Dow Jones
0.4
95
25,019
United States. The benchmark FTSE 100 was flat at 7,662.
Nasdaq
0.0
2
7,825
FTSE
0.1
11
7,662
On domestic front, Indian shares fell from a record high to end marginally lower on
Friday, dragged down by banking and FMCG stocks. The benchmark S&P BSE
Nikkei
1.8
409
22,597
Sensex hit a fresh record high of 36,740 in early trade before giving up all gains to
Hang Seng
0.2
45
28,525
end the session down 7 points at 36,542.
Shanghai Com
(0.2)
(6)
2,831
News Analysis
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Infosys 1QFY2019 Result Review
Advances
810
760
Target revised for Safari Industries
Declines
1,838
1,031
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Unchanged
135
94
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Volumes (` Cr)
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
BSE
2,829
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
NSE
29,591
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
FII
251
496
-4,343
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
678
867
27.8
*MFs
2,353
8,907
68,279
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
606
720
18.9
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
298
410
37.6
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Bata India
Others
Buy
825
896
82.9
ADANIENT
132
6.0
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
398
589
48.1
More Top Picks on Pg4
FORTIS
148
4.0
MPHASIS
1216
4.0
Key Upcoming Events
LALPATHLAB
929
3.5
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
TITAN
837
3.4
Jul 16, 2018
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
6.80
6.50
Jul 16, 2018
US
Industrial Production
(0.09)
0.50
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Jul 16, 2018
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
4.43
5.23
PVR
1214
-13.1
Jul 17, 2018
China
Real GDP (YoY)
6.80
6.70
Jul 17, 2018
UK
Jobless claims change
(7.70)
NCC
89
-8.8
More Events on Pg7
GNFC
415
-8.0
KTKBANK
114
-7.9
ICIL
76
-6.6
As on July 13, 2018
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
News Analysis
Infosys 1QFY2019 Result Review
Infosys for 1QFY2019 posted a QoQ growth of 0.9% to end the period at
US$2,831mn, a constant currency (CC) growth of 2.3%. In Rupee terms, the
company posted a 5.8% growth on CC terms. In geography terms, the US on
QoQ posted a CC growth of 2.0%, Europe posted a QoQ CC growth of 2.1%,
while ROW posted a 5.3% QoQ CC growth. In terms of verticals, retail posted a
QoQ CC growth of 6.4%, Energy, Utilities; Resources & Services posted a QoQ
CC growth of 5.3%, while manufacturing posted a QoQ CC growth of 2.5%. On
EBIT front, the company posted margins at 23.7%, at the upper quartile of the
guidance. Utilization (excluding trainees) at all-time high of 85.7%., while attrition
rate crossed 23.1% V/s 19.5% in 4QFY2018. In terms of large deal, wins crossed
US$1bn, of which over 40% was from Financial Services. In terms of guidance,
FY2019 revenue guidance in constant currency (CC) retained at 6%-8%; FY2019
operating margin guidance retained at 22%-24%. The company also announced a
1:1 bonus issue of equity shares and 1:1 stock dividend of American Depositary
Shares (ADS). We maintain accumulate with a price target of `1412.
Target revised for Safari Industries
We are increasing the target price of Safari Industries to `800 at 40x FY2020
earnings in view of continued demand momentum.
Economic and Political News
PM Modi to launch projects worth over Rs 550 billion in UP on July 29
Farm loan waivers and not real income growth is driving rural demand
PNB's bad loan recovery of over Rs 77 bn in first quarter tops FY18 level
Finance Ministry may ask Sebi to extend public float deadline for PSBs
Corporate News
Essar under watch over 'illegal' coal-bed methane extraction in West Bengal
Bajaj Auto's bike market share sees sharp rise in the June quarter
Insolvency proceedings:Tata Steel readying blueprint to buy Bhushan Power
LIC board to meet on Monday to finalise acquisition of stake in IDBI Bank
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,523
678
867
27.8
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
18,992
606
720
18.9
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
172,402
268
416
55.2
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,117
398
589
48.1
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,691
296
475
60.3
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,620
559
851
52.2
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
284,991
9,434
10,619
12.6
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,887
350
655
86.9
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,545
693
800
15.4
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
28,661
130
218
67.4
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,506
298
410
37.6
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,663
732
1,016
38.8
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
567,889
2,181
2,315
6.2
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
1,12,931
908
1,050
14.4
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprises
3,081
980
1,230
23.9
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of
Bata India
10,732
818
948
15.9
~16% to ~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due
to new product launches, higher number of stores
addition and focus on women’s high growth
segment and margin improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
28,443
1,253
1,764
40.8
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing power
and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over FY18-
20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
19,963
206
350
69.9
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment.
GMM is expected to cross CAGR
15%+ in
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,213
830
1,020
23.0
revenue over the next few years mainly led by
uptick in demand from user industries and it is
also expecting to increase its share of non-GL
business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the Indian
Pharmaceutical companies, is well placed to face
the challenging generic markets, given its focus
on achieving growth through productivity.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
35,324
603
780
28.7
Aurobindo will report net revenue & net profit
CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp. during FY2018-
20E. Valuations are cheap V/s its peers and own
fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees income.
Yes Bank
86,418
376
418
11.2
We expect YES to grow its advance much higher
than industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR of
35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA (1.2%
RBL Bank
24,243
570
670
17.5
FY18) to expand led by margin expansion and
lower credit cost.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,724
280
360
28.8
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,430
1,629
2,178
33.7
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,648
2,079
2,500
20.3
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,657
217
395
82.0
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
30,485
148
210
41.9
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Hindustan Unilever Ltd - July 16, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
9,669
8,529
13..3
9,097
6.3
EBIDTA
2,222
1,849
20.1
1,984
11.9
%
22.9
21.6
21.8
PAT
1,540
1,283
20.0
1,351
13.9
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date
Company
Monday
July 16, 2018
HUL
Tuesday
July 17, 2018
Federal Bank
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jul 16, 2018
7:30 AMChina
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
6.80
6.50
6:45 PMUS
Industrial Production
%
Jun
(0.09)
0.50
12:00 PMIndia
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jun
4.43
5.23
Jul 17, 2018
7:30 AMChina
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q
6.80
6.70
2:00 PMUK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Jun
(7.70)
Jul 18, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jun
1,350.00
1,325.00
6:00 PMUS
Building permits
Thousands
Jun
1,301.00
1,325.00
2:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jun F
2.00
2.00
2:00 PMUK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.40
2.60
Jul 19, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jul 14
214.00
Jul 23, 2018
7:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul A
(0.50)
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Jun
5.43
5.42
Jul 24, 2018
1:00 PMGermany PMI Services
Value
Jul P
54.50
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Jun
689.00
668.00
Jul 25, 2018
1:00 PMGermany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul P
55.90
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
6.9
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
4.8
4.6
4.8
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
6.0
4.0
3.2
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
75,010
2.0
(10.7)
17.7
Russia
Micex
4,526
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,023
1.7
5.4
12.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2,838
(7.0)
(11.1)
(10.8)
South Africa
Top 40
50,672
(1.8)
3.0
9.2
Mexico
Mexbol
48,696
5.9
1.0
(2.9)
Indonesia
LQ45
930
(2.4)
(7.0)
(4.5)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,704
(4.1)
(7.2)
(3.7)
Thailand
SET 50
1,080
(4.9)
(6.8)
8.5
USA
Dow Jones
24,925
(2.4)
1.2
14.7
UK
FTSE
7,651
(0.7)
5.4
3.7
Japan
Nikkei
22,188
(3.0)
1.8
10.5
Germany
DAX
12,493
(2.7)
1.6
(1.2)
France
CAC
5,406
(1.2)
1.5
4.2
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
Open
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
Open
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 16, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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